Awesome-omni-skill The Exponential Puck Framework

The Exponential Puck Framework

install

source · Clone the upstream repo

git clone https://github.com/diegosouzapw/awesome-omni-skill

Claude Code · Install into ~/.claude/skills/

T=$(mktemp -d) && git clone --depth=1 https://github.com/diegosouzapw/awesome-omni-skill "$T" && mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills && cp -r "$T/skills/development/the-exponential-puck-framework" ~/.claude/skills/diegosouzapw-awesome-omni-skill-the-exponential-puck-framework && rm -rf "$T"

manifest: skills/development/the-exponential-puck-framework/SKILL.md

source content

The Exponential Puck Framework

The Exponential Puck Framework（指数型冰球框架）

概述 / Overview

这是一种面向极速演进领域的产品研发战略框架。团队不应局限于基于当前的模型能力构建产品，而应通过研判指数级演进规律，锚定未来 6-12 个月的能力边界，并基于该未来状态进行产品架构——即便当前的技术成功率尚不理想。

来源 / Source

嘉宾: Benjamin Mann
职位: Co-founder
公司: Anthropic

核心步骤 / Core Steps

Analyze Scaling Laws (The Exponential)
Identify '20% Success' Capabilities
Forecast 6-12 Month Trajectory
Build UX for '100% Success' State

核心原则 / Core Principles

Internalize the exponential curve; progress looks flat until the knee of the curve.
Don't build for today's model limitations.
Identify capabilities working 20% of the time today; assume they will work 100% of the time soon.
Design the product experience for the future capability state.

适用场景 / When to Use

当基于能力频繁翻倍且飞速迭代的底层技术（如 LLM）构建软件时。

常见错误 / Common Mistakes

以旧思维使用新工具（例如：将具备自主能力的编程 Agent 仅视作代码补全工具）；Prompt 尝试失败一次即放弃。

实战案例 / Real-World Example

Anthropic 在打造 'Claude Code' 时基于这一核心假设：用户将从 IDE 迁移至终端，即便当时模型的能力尚未达到完美状态。

金句 / Quote

"Don't build for today, build for six months from now... things that aren't quite working that are working 20% of the time, will start working 100% of the time."