Cynefin Classify Skill

Classify problem domain and route to appropriate methods.

Workflow

1. Describe the problem in neutral terms.

2. Ask diagnostic questions:

   • Can we predict the outcome of actions? (Yes=Clear/Complicated, No=Complex/Chaotic)
   • Do experts agree on the approach? (Yes=Clear, Somewhat=Complicated, No=Complex)
   • Is the situation stable? (Yes=Clear/Complicated/Complex, No=Chaotic)
   • Has this been solved before? (Yes=Clear, Similar=Complicated, No=Complex)

3. Classify into one of five domains using cynefin-routing.md.

4. Select methods appropriate to the domain:

   • Clear: Best practice, checklists, automation
   • Complicated: Expert analysis, options evaluation, technical spikes
   • Complex: Safe-to-fail probes, experiments, continuous discovery
   • Chaotic: Stabilize, act, then reassess
   • Confused: Decompose into classifiable parts (formerly "Disorder"; "Aporetic" when deliberately entering this state)

5. Cross-reference with Wardley evolution if strategic context is available.

6. Output:

   ## Cynefin Classification
   Problem: [description]
   Domain: [Clear/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic/Confused]
   Confidence: [High/Medium/Low]
   Liminal: [Yes/No — is this between domains?]
   
   Rationale: [why this classification]
   
   Recommended methods:
   - [method 1]
   - [method 2]
   
   Warning signs of misclassification:
   - [what would indicate we got it wrong]
   

Canvas Output

Update

.claude/diamonds/active.yml

with the

cynefin_domain

field for the relevant diamond. If Wardley mapping was referenced, update

.claude/canvas/landscape.yml

component evolution stages.

Liminal Zones (Snowden, 2022+)

Most real decisions happen in liminal zones — transitional states between domains where characteristics of two adjacent domains blend. If the classification feels uncertain, you may be in a liminal zone rather than a pure domain.

Transition	What it feels like	Action
Clear → Complicated	"We have a process but it's not covering edge cases"	Add expert analysis to the existing practice
Complicated → Complex	"Experts disagree and new factors keep emerging"	Shift from analysis to experimentation
Complex → Chaotic	"Our experiments aren't converging, things are getting worse"	Stabilize first, experiment later
Chaotic → Complex	"We've stopped the bleeding, now what?"	Design safe-to-fail probes
Clear → Chaotic (catastrophic fold)	"Everything was fine and then it all collapsed"	See warning below

Clear→Chaotic Catastrophic Fold

The most important Cynefin warning: when a system in Clear becomes complacent — rigid rules, no sensing, "we've always done it this way" — it can catastrophically collapse into Chaotic with no warning. The transition is NOT gradual. There is no intermediate Complicated or Complex stage.

Detection signs: Over-reliance on best practices without questioning them. No feedback loops. "We don't need to monitor that." Dismissing edge cases as irrelevant.

Mycelium connection: Theory gates and

/feedback-review

prevent complacent drift by requiring evidence refresh and active sensing at every transition.

Source: Snowden (Cynefin evolution, cynefin.io, 2022+)

Theory Citations

• Snowden: Cynefin framework (including Liminal zones and Confused/Aporetic domain renaming)
• Wardley: Evolution mapping