regression-metrics

Track and analyze regression statistics, trends, and health indicators.

Triggers

Alternate expressions and non-obvious activations (primary phrases are matched automatically from the skill description):

• "regression KPIs" → regression metric dashboard
• "flakiness score" → test stability metrics

Purpose

This skill provides regression analytics by:

• Tracking regression occurrence rates
• Measuring time-to-detection and time-to-fix
• Analyzing regression patterns and hotspots
• Identifying high-risk areas
• Trending regression metrics over time
• Generating regression health dashboards

Behavior

When triggered, this skill:

1. Collects regression data:

   • Parse regression test results
   • Load historical regression records
   • Gather bisect findings
   • Import baseline comparisons
   • Aggregate issue tracker data

2. Calculates key metrics:

   • Regression rate (per sprint/release)
   • Mean time to detect (MTTD)
   • Mean time to fix (MTTF)
   • Regression recurrence rate
   • Escape rate (production regressions)

3. Identifies patterns:

   • Common root causes
   • High-regression components
   • Time-of-day/sprint patterns
   • Correlation with code changes

4. Analyzes trends:

   • Regression rate over time
   • Detection speed improvements
   • Fix time trends
   • Quality trajectory

5. Generates visualizations:

   • Regression heatmaps
   • Trend charts
   • Burn-down tracking
   • Risk matrices

6. Produces actionable insights:

   • Prioritize high-risk areas
   • Recommend test improvements
   • Suggest process changes
   • Set quality goals

Key Metrics

Regression Rate

regression_rate:
  description: Number of regressions per time period
  formula: regressions_detected / time_period
  units: regressions per sprint/week/release

  targets:
    excellent: "< 2 per sprint"
    good: "2-5 per sprint"
    acceptable: "5-10 per sprint"
    poor: "> 10 per sprint"

  calculation:
    count: new regressions introduced
    period: sprint, release, or month
    exclude: known issues, flaky tests

Mean Time to Detect (MTTD)

mttd:
  description: Average time from regression introduction to detection
  formula: sum(detection_time) / regression_count
  units: hours or days

  targets:
    excellent: "< 4 hours"
    good: "< 24 hours"
    acceptable: "< 7 days"
    poor: "> 7 days"

  calculation:
    detection_time: commit_time_to_failure_report
    includes: automated and manual detection

Mean Time to Fix (MTTF)

mttf:
  description: Average time from detection to fix deployment
  formula: sum(fix_time) / regression_count
  units: hours or days

  targets:
    critical: "< 4 hours"
    high: "< 24 hours"
    medium: "< 7 days"
    low: "< 30 days"

  calculation:
    fix_time: detection_to_fix_deployed
    severity_weighted: true

Escape Rate

escape_rate:
  description: Percentage of regressions reaching production
  formula: (production_regressions / total_regressions) * 100
  units: percentage

  targets:
    excellent: "< 5%"
    good: "5-10%"
    acceptable: "10-20%"
    poor: "> 20%"

  calculation:
    production_regressions: found by users/monitoring
    total_regressions: all detected including pre-release

Recurrence Rate

recurrence_rate:
  description: Percentage of regressions that recur after fix
  formula: (recurring_regressions / total_fixed) * 100
  units: percentage

  targets:
    excellent: "< 5%"
    good: "5-10%"
    acceptable: "10-15%"
    poor: "> 15%"

  indicates:
    - insufficient test coverage
    - lack of regression tests
    - poor fix quality

Metrics Dashboard

# Regression Metrics Dashboard

**Period**: Last 30 Days (2025-12-29 to 2026-01-28)
**Project**: User Service

## Executive Summary

| Metric | Current | Target | Status | Trend |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|-------|
| Regression Rate | 4.2/sprint | < 5 | ✅ Good | ↓ Improving |
| MTTD | 8.5 hours | < 24h | ✅ Good | ↓ Improving |
| MTTF | 18.7 hours | < 24h | ⚠️ Close | → Stable |
| Escape Rate | 12% | < 10% | ⚠️ Above Target | ↑ Worsening |
| Recurrence Rate | 7% | < 10% | ✅ Good | → Stable |

**Overall Health**: ⚠️ Good with Concerns
**Priority Focus**: Reduce production escapes

## Regression Trend (Last 6 Sprints)

Sprint 8: ██████████ 10 regressions Sprint 9: ████████ 8 regressions Sprint 10: ██████ 6 regressions Sprint 11: █████ 5 regressions Sprint 12: ████ 4 regressions Sprint 13: ████ 4 regressions ↓ -60% improvement since Sprint 8

**Analysis**: Significant improvement trend. Stabilizing around 4-5 per sprint.

## Detection Speed Trend

Week 1: 24h ████████████████████████ Week 2: 18h ██████████████████ Week 3: 12h ████████████ Week 4: 9h █████████ Week 5: 8h ████████ ↓ -67% improvement in 5 weeks

**Analysis**: Automation improvements paying off. Most regressions now caught within hours.

## Component Heatmap

Regressions by component (last 30 days):

| Component | Regressions | Change | Risk Level |
|-----------|-------------|--------|------------|
| src/auth/ | 🔴🔴🔴 3 | +1 | High |
| src/api/ | 🟡🟡 2 | 0 | Medium |
| src/db/ | 🟡🟡 2 | -1 | Medium |
| src/user/ | 🟡 1 | -2 | Low |
| src/utils/ | 🟢 0 | 0 | Low |

**Hotspot Alert**: `src/auth/` showing increased regression rate

## Root Cause Analysis

| Root Cause | Count | % | Trend |
|------------|-------|---|-------|
| Missing test coverage | 5 | 42% | → |
| Integration not tested | 3 | 25% | ↑ |
| Edge case not considered | 2 | 17% | ↓ |
| Flaky test masking issue | 1 | 8% | → |
| Breaking dependency change | 1 | 8% | → |

**Insight**: 67% of regressions preventable with better coverage/integration testing

## Severity Distribution

| Severity | Count | MTTF | Status |
|----------|-------|------|--------|
| Critical | 1 | 3.2h | ✅ Fast response |
| High | 4 | 12.5h | ✅ Within target |
| Medium | 6 | 28.4h | ⚠️ Above target |
| Low | 1 | 72h | ✅ Acceptable |

## Time-to-Detection Analysis

Detection Method: Automated Tests: 75% (avg 4.2h detection) Manual Testing: 17% (avg 32h detection) Production: 8% (avg 96h detection)

**Insight**: Automation catching most issues early. Need to reduce production escapes.

## Time-to-Fix Analysis

Fix Duration by Severity: Critical: ▓▓▓ 3.2h (target: 4h) ✅ High: ▓▓▓▓▓▓ 12.5h (target: 24h) ✅ Medium: ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 28.4h (target: 24h) ⚠️ Low: ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 72h ✅

**Issue**: Medium-severity regressions taking slightly longer than target

## Regression Recurrence

| Original Issue | Recurred | Reason |
|----------------|----------|--------|
| AUTH-101 | ✅ Yes | Missing regression test |
| API-205 | ❌ No | Regression test added |
| DB-089 | ❌ No | Regression test added |
| USER-145 | ❌ No | Regression test added |

**Recurrence Rate**: 25% (1 of 4) - One regression lacked test

## Production Escapes

Regressions that reached production:

| Issue | Severity | Detection | Impact | MTTD |
|-------|----------|-----------|--------|------|
| AUTH-203 | High | User report | 500 users | 12h |

**Analysis**: 1 escape this period. Auth module regression bypassed staging tests.

## Recommendations

### High Priority

1. **Add integration tests for auth flows**
   - Reason: 3 regressions in auth, 1 production escape
   - Impact: Reduce auth regressions by ~60%
   - Effort: 2 days

2. **Improve staging test coverage**
   - Reason: Production escape indicates gap
   - Impact: Reduce escape rate to <5%
   - Effort: 1 week

3. **Reduce medium-severity MTTF**
   - Reason: 28.4h vs 24h target
   - Impact: Faster user impact resolution
   - Effort: Process improvement

### Medium Priority

4. **Add regression tests for all fixes**
   - Reason: 25% recurrence rate on fixes without tests
   - Impact: Zero recurrence for tested fixes
   - Effort: Ongoing discipline

5. **Monitor auth module closely**
   - Reason: Highest regression count
   - Impact: Early detection of issues
   - Effort: Weekly review

## Historical Comparison

| Period | Reg Rate | MTTD | MTTF | Escape % |
|--------|----------|------|------|----------|
| 3 months ago | 8.2 | 36h | 48h | 18% |
| 2 months ago | 6.5 | 24h | 36h | 15% |
| 1 month ago | 5.1 | 12h | 24h | 13% |
| Current | 4.2 | 8.5h | 18.7h | 12% |

**Trend**: All metrics improving. Regression rate down 49%, detection 76% faster.

## Goals for Next Period

| Metric | Current | Goal | Strategy |
|--------|---------|------|----------|
| Regression Rate | 4.2 | < 4 | Improve auth testing |
| MTTD | 8.5h | < 8h | Add more automation |
| MTTF | 18.7h | < 18h | Faster review process |
| Escape Rate | 12% | < 10% | Better staging tests |

## Data Sources

- Regression tests: `.aiwg/testing/regression-results/`
- Bisect reports: `.aiwg/testing/regression-bisect-*/`
- Baseline comparisons: `.aiwg/testing/baseline-comparisons/`
- Issue tracker: GitHub Issues (label: regression)
- CI/CD logs: GitHub Actions

Usage Examples

View Current Metrics

User: "Show regression metrics"

Skill executes:
1. Aggregate data from last 30 days
2. Calculate key metrics
3. Generate dashboard
4. Identify trends

Output:
"Regression Metrics (Last 30 Days)

Overall Health: ⚠️ Good with Concerns

Key Metrics:
- Regression Rate: 4.2/sprint ✅ (target < 5)
- MTTD: 8.5 hours ✅ (target < 24h)
- MTTF: 18.7 hours ⚠️ (target < 24h)
- Escape Rate: 12% ⚠️ (target < 10%)

Hotspots:
🔴 src/auth/ - 3 regressions this period
🟡 src/api/ - 2 regressions

Top Recommendation: Add integration tests for auth

Full dashboard: .aiwg/testing/regression-metrics-dashboard.md"

Regression Trends

User: "Regression trends over time"

Skill analyzes:
- Last 6 sprints of data
- Calculate trend direction
- Identify patterns

Output:
"Regression Trends (Last 6 Sprints)

Sprint 8:  10 regressions
Sprint 9:   8 regressions (-20%)
Sprint 10:  6 regressions (-25%)
Sprint 11:  5 regressions (-17%)
Sprint 12:  4 regressions (-20%)
Sprint 13:  4 regressions (stable)

Overall: ↓ -60% improvement
Status: Stabilizing around 4-5/sprint

MTTD: 36h → 8.5h (-76%)
MTTF: 48h → 18.7h (-61%)

Conclusion: Strong improvement trend. Approaching best-in-class levels."

Component Heatmap

User: "Which components have most regressions?"

Skill generates:
"Component Regression Heatmap (Last 30 Days)

High Risk:
🔴 src/auth/ - 3 regressions (+1 from last period)
   Most common: Missing integration tests

Medium Risk:
🟡 src/api/ - 2 regressions (no change)
🟡 src/db/ - 2 regressions (-1 from last period)

Low Risk:
🟢 src/user/ - 1 regression (-2 from last period)
🟢 src/utils/ - 0 regressions

Recommendation: Focus testing efforts on auth module"

Integration

This skill uses:

• regression-bisect

  : Import bisect findings

• regression-baseline

  : Analyze baseline drift patterns

• test-coverage

  : Correlate coverage with regression rates

• project-awareness

  : Detect sprint/release boundaries

Agent Orchestration

agents:
  analysis:
    agent: metrics-analyst
    focus: Statistical analysis and trends

  visualization:
    agent: technical-writer
    focus: Dashboard and report generation

  recommendations:
    agent: test-architect
    focus: Process improvement suggestions

Configuration

Metric Collection

collection_config:
  data_sources:
    - regression_test_results
    - bisect_reports
    - baseline_comparisons
    - issue_tracker
    - ci_cd_logs

  update_frequency: daily
  retention: 90 days
  aggregation: sprint, week, month

Thresholds

thresholds:
  regression_rate:
    excellent: 2
    good: 5
    acceptable: 10

  mttd_hours:
    excellent: 4
    good: 24
    acceptable: 168  # 7 days

  mttf_hours:
    critical: 4
    high: 24
    medium: 168  # 7 days

  escape_rate_percent:
    excellent: 5
    good: 10
    acceptable: 20

Alert Rules

alerts:
  regression_spike:
    condition: regression_rate > 10
    severity: high
    notification: team-channel

  escape_rate_high:
    condition: escape_rate > 20%
    severity: critical
    notification: leadership

  mttd_degrading:
    condition: mttd_trend_increase > 50%
    severity: medium
    notification: test-team

Output Locations

• Dashboards:

  .aiwg/testing/regression-metrics-dashboard.md

• Trends:

  .aiwg/testing/regression-trends.json

• Heatmaps:

  .aiwg/testing/regression-heatmap.json

• Historical data:

  .aiwg/testing/metrics-history/

References

• @$AIWG_ROOT/agentic/code/frameworks/sdlc-complete/schemas/metrics/regression-metrics-schema.yaml
• @$AIWG_ROOT/agentic/code/frameworks/sdlc-complete/agents/metrics-analyst.md
• @$AIWG_ROOT/agentic/code/frameworks/sdlc-complete/commands/metrics-dashboard.md