Analyze-Verify 150 Protocol

Core Principle: No claim without proof. Every critical fact needs: source + confidence level. If unsure, keep digging until confident or escalate to user.

What This Skill Does

When you invoke this skill, you're asking AI to:

• Source every claim — Trace facts to verifiable sources
• Quantify confidence — Express certainty as percentage
• Verify independently — Cross-check from multiple sources
• Loop until confident — Keep researching if <85% confidence
• Escalate when stuck — Ask user if sources exhausted

The 150% Proof Rule

Dimension	100% Core	+50% Enhancement
Source	Primary source identified	+ Independent confirmation
Confidence	Percentage stated	+ Reasoning documented
Verification	Single source check	+ Multi-source cross-validation
Gaps	Note uncertainties	+ Active Loop150 to fill gaps

Confidence Level Framework

Level	% Range	Description	Action Required
Verified	95-100%	Multiple primary sources, no contradictions	Use in critical decisions
Strong	85-94%	Reliable sources, minor uncertainties	Safe for most purposes
Moderate	75-84%	Limited sources, some gaps	Flag for verification
Weak	50-74%	Insufficient evidence, major gaps	Do not use without confirmation
Insufficient	<50%	Contradictory or missing	Reject, research further

When to Use This Skill

• Critical decisions — Where wrong facts cause real damage
• Legal/compliance — Where accuracy has legal implications
• Architecture decisions — Where claims drive major choices
• Stakeholder communication — Where credibility matters
• Any high-stakes claim — When you can't afford to be wrong

Execution Protocol

Step 1: CLAIM FORMULATION

State the fact clearly:

🔍 **Claim:** [Precise factual statement]
**Context:** [Why this matters]
**Critical Level:** [High/Medium/Low]

Step 2: PRIMARY SOURCE

Find the original source:

• Locate primary evidence
• Verify authenticity
• Extract direct quote/data

Step 3: SECONDARY CONFIRMATION

Find independent corroboration:

• Different source type
• Cross-reference data
• Check consistency

Step 4: CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT

Calculate confidence:

**Evidence Evaluation:**
├── Primary Source: [Quality assessment]
├── Secondary Sources: [Count and quality]
├── Contradictions: [Any found?]
└── Gaps: [What's missing?]

**Confidence:** [X]%
**Reasoning:** [Why this percentage]

Step 5: DECISION

Confidence ≥85%? 
├─ YES → Use fact with stated confidence
└─ NO → Enter Loop150

Loop150 Continuous Verification

When confidence <85%:

🔄 **LOOP150 ACTIVATED** (Current: [X]%)

ITERATION 1: EXPAND SOURCES
├── Identify new source types
├── Use alternative research methods
├── Broaden search scope
↓
ITERATION 2: DEEPER ANALYSIS
├── Drill into source details
├── Verify source credibility
├── Check contextual factors
↓
ITERATION 3: CROSS-VALIDATION
├── Compare against known facts
├── Test logical consistency
├── Seek expert corroboration
↓
RECALCULATE: New confidence = [Y]%

Continue loop until:
├─ ≥90% achieved → EXIT, proceed with confidence
└─ Sources exhausted → ESCALATE to user

Source Quality Criteria

🔍 RELIABILITY FACTORS:

• Authority: Official, expert, or primary source?
• Currency: How recent and up-to-date?
• Objectivity: Free from bias or agenda?
• Methodology: Sound research methods used?
• Independence: Not dependent on other sources?

📊 EVIDENCE STRENGTH:

Type	Strength	Example
Primary	High	Original data, first-hand
Secondary	Medium	Analysis of primary
Tertiary	Low	Summaries, reviews
Statistical	High	Large sample, proper method
Anecdotal	Variable	Personal experience

Output Format

🔍 **PROOF-GRADE 150 VERIFICATION**

**Claim:** [Precise factual statement]

**Primary Source:** 
- [File/location/date]
- "[Direct quote or data]"

**Secondary Sources:**
- [Source 2]: [Confirmation]
- [Source 3]: [Confirmation]

**Confidence Level:** [X]% 
**Reasoning:** [Why this level]

**Validation Method:** [How verified]
**Outstanding Issues:** [Any uncertainties]

**Status:** ✅ VERIFIED | ⚠️ NEEDS CONFIRMATION | ❌ INSUFFICIENT

Operational Rules

1. EVERY CRITICAL CLAIM: Requires proof-grade validation
2. SOURCE FIRST: Identify source before using fact
3. CONFIDENCE REQUIRED: Every fact has percentage
4. LOOP150 MANDATORY: <85% triggers verification loop
5. TRANSPARENCY: Document all sources and reasoning
6. ESCALATE HONESTLY: If sources exhausted, ask user

Failure Modes & Recovery

Failure	Detection	Recovery
Unverified Claims	Facts without sources	Immediate verification, Loop150
Overconfidence	Inflated percentages	Recalculate with scrutiny
Source Bias	Only confirming sources	Actively seek contradictions
Incomplete Docs	Missing source trail	Document all sources now

Examples

❌ Without Proof-Grade

AI: "The API response time is fast enough"
Source: "Feels fast to me"
Result: Performance issues in production

✅ With Proof-Grade 150

🔍 PROOF-GRADE 150 VERIFICATION

Claim: "API response time is consistently under 200ms"

Primary Source:
- /tests/performance/load_test_results.json
- "p99 latency: 187ms across 10,000 requests"

Secondary Sources:
- Production monitoring (last 7 days): avg 156ms
- APM dashboard: p95 = 178ms

Confidence Level: 95%
Reasoning: Multiple measurement sources, consistent results,
production data confirms test environment findings.

Validation Method: Cross-referenced test data with production metrics

Status: ✅ VERIFIED FOR USE

Relationship to Other Skills

• research-deep-150 → Gathers evidence
• proof-grade-150 → Validates and quantifies confidence
• integrity-check-150 → Final quality verification

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Remember: Proof-grade isn't about being slow — it's about being trustworthy. A 95% confidence claim is more valuable than an unverified assertion. When stakes are high, proof-grade protects everyone.