Decision Architecture

When This Skill Activates

Claude uses this skill when:

• Facing difficult product decisions
• Choosing between multiple options
• Reducing decision paralysis
• Evaluating tradeoffs

Core Frameworks

1. Expected Value Thinking (Source: Annie Duke)

The Formula:

Expected Value = (Probability of Success × Value if Successful) 
                - (Probability of Failure × Cost if Fails)

Example:

Decision: Build feature A or B?

Feature A:
- 70% chance of +$100K revenue = $70K
- 30% chance of -$20K cost = -$6K
- Expected value: +$64K

Feature B:
- 30% chance of +$500K revenue = $150K
- 70% chance of -$50K cost = -$35K
- Expected value: +$115K

Choose B (higher EV despite lower probability)

2. Regret Minimization (Source: Jeff Bezos)

The Question:

"When I'm 80 years old, will I regret not trying this?"

Framework:

• Imagine yourself in the future
• Work backwards
• Minimize long-term regret

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Action Templates

Template: Decision Matrix

# Decision: [Choice A vs Choice B]

## Expected Value

### Option A
- Success probability: [X]%
- Success value: [$Y]
- Failure probability: [Z]%
- Failure cost: [$W]
- **Expected value:** [$EV]

### Option B
- Success probability: [X]%
- Success value: [$Y]
- Failure probability: [Z]%
- Failure cost: [$W]
- **Expected value:** [$EV]

## Regret Minimization
- If I choose A, will I regret not trying B?
- If I choose B, will I regret not trying A?

## Reversibility
- Can we reverse this? [Yes/No]
- Cost to reverse: [Low/Medium/High]

## Decision: [Option] because [reasoning]

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Quick Reference

🎲 Decision Checklist

Analysis:

• Expected value calculated
• Regret minimization applied
• Reversibility assessed
• Pre-mortem completed

Decision:

• Choice made
• Reasoning documented
• Success criteria defined

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Key Quotes

Annie Duke:

"Life is poker, not chess. We're making decisions with incomplete information."

Jeff Bezos:

"Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had."