Elicit Prediction Market

Live prediction market at https://elicit.attic.codes running basin-prediction (Rust CPMM).

Auth

# Login (sets cookies in /tmp/elicit_cookies)
curl -s -c /tmp/elicit_cookies -X POST https://elicit.attic.codes/api/auth/login \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -d '{"username":"yulia","password":"normalizedvector"}'

# Check identity
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies https://elicit.attic.codes/api/auth/me

User:

yulia

(ID 10), role:

user

. CSRF header

X-Basin-Request: 1

required on all POST/DELETE.

Read Markets

# List all markets
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets

# Single market + your position
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}

# Price history (array of {t: ms, p: [NO_prob, YES_prob]})
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/history

# Trade log (limit/offset pagination)
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies "https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/trades?limit=20&offset=0"

Preview Trades (dry run, no money moves)

# Preview buying $50 of YES shares
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies \
  "https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/preview?action=buy&outcome=1&amount=50"
# Returns: shares, avg_price, prob_before, prob_after, potential_payout

# Preview buying $50 of NO shares
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies \
  "https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/preview?action=buy&outcome=0&amount=50"

# Preview selling 10 YES shares
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies \
  "https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/preview?action=sell&outcome=1&amount=10"
# For sell, amount = number of shares. Returns: proceeds, realized_pnl

Place Bets

# Buy YES shares (outcome=1) for $50
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies -X POST https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/buy \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' -H 'X-Basin-Request: 1' \
  -d '{"outcome": 1, "amount": 50.0}'
# Returns: {cost, shares, balance, probabilities}

# Buy NO shares (outcome=0) for $50
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies -X POST https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/buy \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' -H 'X-Basin-Request: 1' \
  -d '{"outcome": 0, "amount": 50.0}'

# Sell 10 YES shares
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies -X POST https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/sell \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' -H 'X-Basin-Request: 1' \
  -d '{"outcome": 1, "shares": 10.0}'
# Returns: {proceeds, shares (remaining), balance, probabilities, realized_pnl}

# Claim payout from resolved market
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies -X POST https://elicit.attic.codes/api/markets/{id}/claim \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' -H 'X-Basin-Request: 1' \
  -d '{}'

Check Portfolio

# Your profile + all positions + total P&L
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies https://elicit.attic.codes/api/users/10

# Your trade history
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies "https://elicit.attic.codes/api/users/10/trades?limit=50"

# All users and balances
curl -s -b /tmp/elicit_cookies https://elicit.attic.codes/api/users/directory

Outcomes

• outcome: 0

  = NO

• outcome: 1

  = YES
• Market status:

  open

  ,

  closed

  ,

  resolved:outcome:0

  (NO wins),

  resolved:outcome:1

  (YES wins),

  resolved:percent:PPM

  ,

  resolved:na

• On resolution: winning shares pay $1 each, losing shares pay $0

CPMM Math

Price = pool ratio.

yes_price = no_pool / (yes_pool + no_pool)

. Buying YES increases YES price. Pool invariant:

yes_pool * no_pool = k

.

Current State (as of session)

ID	Question	YES%	Trades	Volume	Status
1	Will this market work?	92%	16	274	open
3	Will Dario show up at warehouse during stream?	4%	3	300	open
4	Will the stream drop?	97%	12	594	resolved:YES
5	Will we discover a new problematic bug in Basin?	69%	7	104	open
6	Will Dario collaborate with Basin before end of Feb?	6%	7	305	open
7	Will there be consensus a new egregore is born?	34%	11	2332	open

Your position: Market 7, 1049.13 YES shares @ $0.95 avg, unrealized P&L: -$720.15, balance: $0.00

Kelly Criterion

For sizing bets given a belief:

kelly_fraction = (p * b - q) / b
where:
  p = your believed probability of YES
  q = 1 - p
  b = (1 / market_price) - 1  (net odds)
bet = kelly_fraction * bankroll * 0.25  (quarter-Kelly for safety)

Script: Quick Trade

See

scripts/trade.sh

for a one-liner trade helper.