/assumption-map

Map and prioritize assumptions underlying a product decision, strategy, or bet.

When to Use

• Before committing resources to a new initiative (Phase 2-3 transition)
• When a strategic bet has implicit assumptions that need surfacing
• After

  /strategic-bet

  to make assumptions explicit and testable
• During Phase 1 discovery to challenge founding hypotheses

Vision to Value Phase

Phase 1: Strategic Foundation (also used at Phase 2-3 boundary)

Gotchas

• Assumptions must be falsifiable — 'the market will grow' is too vague, 'TAM will exceed $1B by 2027 (source: X)' is testable
• High-risk assumptions (high impact, low certainty) must have validation plans

Workflow

Step 1: Identify the Decision/Bet

What decision, strategy, or bet are we mapping assumptions for?

Step 2: Surface All Assumptions

Extract assumptions across these categories:

Category	Question
Customer	Who is the target? Do they have this problem? Will they pay?
Problem	Is this a real problem? How painful is it? How do they solve it today?
Solution	Will our approach work? Can we build it? Will users adopt it?
Market	Is the market big enough? Is timing right? Can we reach them?
Business	Can we make money? Is the unit economics viable? Can we scale?
Competitive	Can we differentiate? Will competitors respond? Is the moat real?

Step 3: Score Each Assumption

For each assumption, assess:

Dimension	Scale	Meaning
Impact if wrong	High / Medium / Low	How much damage if this assumption is false?
Confidence level	High / Medium / Low	How confident are we this is true?
Evidence quality	Strong / Weak / None	What evidence supports this?

Step 4: Prioritize (The Assumption Map)

Plot assumptions on a 2x2 matrix:

                    HIGH IMPACT IF WRONG
                    |
    VALIDATE FIRST  |  CRITICAL RISK
    (test quickly)  |  (must validate before committing)
                    |
   -----------------+------------------
                    |
    MONITOR         |  DOCUMENT
    (check later)   |  (acknowledge, move on)
                    |
                    LOW IMPACT IF WRONG

    HIGH CONFIDENCE -------- LOW CONFIDENCE

Priority order:

1. Critical Risk (low confidence + high impact) - Validate BEFORE committing
2. Validate First (high confidence + high impact) - Quick tests to confirm
3. Monitor (high confidence + low impact) - Track for changes
4. Document (low confidence + low impact) - Note and move on

Step 5: Design Validation Plan

For each Critical Risk and Validate First assumption:

• Test method: How will you validate? (interview, prototype, data analysis, experiment)
• Success criteria: What result would confirm/deny this assumption?
• Timeline: When will you know? (days, weeks, months)
• Owner: Who is responsible for validating?

Output Format

# Assumption Map: [Decision/Bet Name]

**Decision**: [What we're deciding]
**Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD]
**Owner**: [Who owns this map]

## Assumptions Inventory

| # | Category | Assumption | Impact | Confidence | Evidence | Priority |
|---|----------|-----------|--------|------------|----------|----------|
| A-1 | Customer | [statement] | High | Low | None | Critical Risk |
| A-2 | Solution | [statement] | High | Medium | Weak | Validate First |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

## Priority Matrix

### Critical Risk (Validate Before Committing)
- **A-1**: [assumption] - Test: [method] by [date]

### Validate First (Quick Tests)
- **A-2**: [assumption] - Test: [method] by [date]

### Monitor
- [assumptions to track]

### Document (Acknowledged)
- [low-priority assumptions]

## Validation Plan

| # | Test Method | Success Criteria | Timeline | Owner |
|---|------------|-----------------|----------|-------|
| A-1 | [method] | [criteria] | [date] | [person] |

Integration

• Links to

  /strategic-bet

  (assumptions feed into bet documentation)
• Links to

  /context-save

  (save validated/invalidated assumptions)
• Links to

  /experiment-design

  (design experiments for critical assumptions)
• Assumptions register:

  context/assumptions/registry.md

Based On

• Itamar Gilad's Assumption Mapping framework
• Alberto Savoia's pretotyping methodology
• Lean Startup validation principles