/opportunity-tree

Build an Opportunity Solution Tree to map the path from desired outcome to testable solutions.

When to Use

• At the start of discovery (Phase 1) to structure exploration
• When you have a desired outcome but many possible approaches
• To align a team on what opportunities to pursue
• Before jumping to solutions, to ensure you're solving the right problems

Vision to Value Phase

Phase 1: Strategic Foundation

Workflow

Step 1: Define the Desired Outcome

A clear, measurable business or product outcome:

Outcome: [Specific measurable result]
Metric: [How we measure it]
Current: [Where we are today]
Target: [Where we want to be]
Timeframe: [By when]

Good outcomes are specific and measurable, not vague aspirations.

Step 2: Discover Opportunities

Opportunities are unmet needs, pain points, or desires expressed by customers. They come from:

/feedback-recall

Rules for good opportunities:

• Stated from the customer's perspective
• Not solutions disguised as problems
• Specific enough to act on
• Supported by evidence (not assumed)

Step 3: Structure the Tree

DESIRED OUTCOME
|
+-- Opportunity 1 (customer need/pain)
|   +-- Solution A
|   |   +-- Experiment 1
|   |   +-- Experiment 2
|   +-- Solution B
|       +-- Experiment 3
|
+-- Opportunity 2 (customer need/pain)
|   +-- Solution C
|   |   +-- Experiment 4
|   +-- Solution D
|       +-- Experiment 5
|
+-- Opportunity 3 (customer need/pain)
    +-- Solution E
        +-- Experiment 6

At each level:

• Outcome -> Opportunities: What customer needs, if addressed, would drive this outcome?
• Opportunities -> Solutions: What are multiple ways we could address this need?
• Solutions -> Experiments: How could we test if this solution works?

Step 4: Assess and Prioritize Opportunities

For each opportunity:

Select 1-3 opportunities to pursue (not all of them).

Step 5: Generate Multiple Solutions

For each selected opportunity, brainstorm 3+ solutions:

• At least one simple/cheap solution
• At least one ambitious solution
• Consider solutions from adjacent industries

Anti-pattern: Jumping to the first solution. Force breadth before depth.

Step 6: Design Experiments

For the most promising solutions, design small experiments (link to

/experiment-design

Output Format

# Opportunity Solution Tree: [Outcome Name]

**Desired Outcome**: [Measurable outcome]
**Metric**: [Measurement] | **Current**: [X] | **Target**: [Y] | **By**: [Date]
**Owner**: [Name]
**Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD]

## Tree

### Outcome: [Statement]

#### Opportunity 1: [Customer need]
**Evidence**: [Source and strength]
**Size**: [Large/Medium/Small]
**Priority**: [Selected / Deferred / Rejected]

- **Solution 1a**: [Description]
  - Experiment: [Quick test]
- **Solution 1b**: [Description]
  - Experiment: [Quick test]

#### Opportunity 2: [Customer need]
**Evidence**: [Source and strength]
**Size**: [Large/Medium/Small]
**Priority**: [Selected / Deferred / Rejected]

- **Solution 2a**: [Description]
  - Experiment: [Quick test]

## Selected Path

**Pursuing**: Opportunity [N] via Solution [Na]
**First experiment**: [Description]
**Decision date**: [When we'll evaluate results]

## Deferred Opportunities

| Opportunity | Reason Deferred | Revisit Trigger |
|-------------|----------------|-----------------|
| [Name] | [Why not now] | [What would change this] |

Integration

• Feeds from customer research,

  /feedback-recall

  ,

  /market-analysis

• Outputs feed into

  /assumption-map

  (assumptions behind selected path)
• Solutions feed into

  /experiment-design

  (validation)
• Selected path feeds into

  /prd

  or

  /strategic-bet

Based On

• Teresa Torres' "Continuous Discovery Habits" (Opportunity Solution Tree)
• Marty Cagan's discovery principles
• Dual-track agile (discovery + delivery)