Product-org-os pirate-metrics

Document Intelligence

This skill supports three modes: Create, Update, and Find.

Mode Detection

@path/to/pirate-metrics.md

Threshold: >=85% auto-proceed | 70-84% state assumption | <70% ask user

Mode Behaviors

CREATE: Generate complete AARRR funnel map with stage definitions, metrics, benchmarks, funnel analysis, and OMTM recommendation using template below.

UPDATE:

1. Read existing pirate metrics document (search if path not provided)
2. Preserve unchanged stages exactly
3. Update metrics, benchmarks, or OMTM recommendation
4. Show diff summary: "Updated: [sections]. Unchanged: [sections]."
5. Note: Changing the OMTM is a strategic pivot; document rationale for the shift

FIND:

1. Search paths below for pirate metrics documents
2. Present results: title, product, current OMTM, path
3. Ask: "Update one of these, or create new?"

Search Locations for Pirate Metrics

• product/

• metrics/

• growth/

• strategy/

Gotchas

• Never fabricate conversion rates, funnel numbers, or benchmark data -- use frameworks with [TBD] placeholders
• Activation is NOT signup -- it is the moment the user experiences core value (the "aha moment")
• RARRA is not a replacement for AARRR; it is a prioritization reordering for products past product-market fit
• The OMTM changes as the product matures -- an early-stage product focuses on Activation; a scaling product may focus on Retention or Revenue

Map the AARRR Pirate Metrics funnel for a product: define each stage, identify the key metrics and events, analyze stage-to-stage conversion, and recommend the One Metric That Matters.

Vision to Value Phase

Phase 5: Business & Customer Outcomes - Pirate Metrics provide the measurement framework for understanding where customers succeed and where they fall off across the entire lifecycle.

Prerequisites: Phase 1-2 complete (target market defined, value proposition clear, product launched or in beta) Outputs used by: Phase 5 (value realization, customer health), Phase 6 (outcome reviews, retrospectives), Phase 3 (roadmap prioritization informed by funnel bottlenecks)

Methodology

The AARRR Stages

Funnel Mapping Process

1. Define the specific events that mark each stage transition for YOUR product (not generic)
2. Identify the conversion rate between each adjacent stage
3. Find the biggest drop-off -- this is your constraint
4. Pick the OMTM -- the metric at the stage with the biggest drop-off or highest leverage

RARRA Variant (Retention-First)

For products past product-market fit, RARRA reorders the priority:

OMTM Selection Criteria

Benchmark Ranges (Industry Averages)

Note: Benchmarks vary significantly by industry, product type, and business model. Use as directional guidance only.

Output Structure

# Pirate Metrics (AARRR): [Product Name]

**Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD]
**Owner**: [Single accountable person -- typically Growth Lead or VP Product]
**Product**: [Product name]
**Product Stage**: Pre-PMF / Early Growth / Scaling / Mature
**Framework Variant**: AARRR / RARRA

## Funnel Overview

| Stage | Defining Event | Current Metric | Benchmark | Status |
|-------|---------------|---------------|-----------|--------|
| **Acquisition** | [Event] | [TBD] | [Range] | [Above/At/Below] |
| **Activation** | [Event] | [TBD] | [Range] | [Above/At/Below] |
| **Retention** | [Event] | [TBD] | [Range] | [Above/At/Below] |
| **Revenue** | [Event] | [TBD] | [Range] | [Above/At/Below] |
| **Referral** | [Event] | [TBD] | [Range] | [Above/At/Below] |

## Stage Detail

### Acquisition

**Key Question**: How do users find [Product Name]?

**Defining Event**: [The specific event that marks a user as "acquired" -- e.g., visits landing page, creates account]

**Metrics**:
| Metric | Current | Target | Source |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| [Traffic by channel] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Analytics tool] |
| [Signup rate] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [CAC by channel] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |

**Top Channels**:
| Channel | Volume | Conversion | CAC | Trend |
|---------|--------|-----------|-----|-------|
| [Channel 1] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Up/Flat/Down] |
| [Channel 2] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Up/Flat/Down] |

### Activation

**Key Question**: Do users experience the core value of [Product Name]?

**Aha Moment**: [Describe the specific moment when users first experience the product's core value]

**Defining Event**: [The specific measurable event -- e.g., completes first project, sends first message, invites teammate]

**Metrics**:
| Metric | Current | Target | Source |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| [Onboarding completion] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [Time to aha moment] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [Setup completion rate] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |

### Retention

**Key Question**: Do users keep coming back to [Product Name]?

**Defining Event**: [The specific event that marks "retained" -- e.g., returns within 7 days, active in trailing 30 days]

**Metrics**:
| Metric | Current | Target | Source |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| [D1 retention] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [D7 retention] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [D30 retention] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [DAU/MAU ratio] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |

**Retention Curve Shape**: [Flattening (healthy) / Declining to zero (problem) / Unknown]

### Revenue

**Key Question**: Do users pay for [Product Name]?

**Defining Event**: [The specific monetization event -- e.g., upgrades to paid, first purchase, subscription renewal]

**Metrics**:
| Metric | Current | Target | Source |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| [Free-to-paid conversion] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [ARPU] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [LTV] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [MRR / ARR] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |

### Referral

**Key Question**: Do users tell others about [Product Name]?

**Defining Event**: [The specific referral event -- e.g., sends invite, shares referral link, writes review]

**Metrics**:
| Metric | Current | Target | Source |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| [K-factor] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [NPS] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [Referral rate] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |
| [Viral coefficient] | [TBD] | [TBD] | [Source] |

## Funnel Analysis

### Stage-to-Stage Conversion

Acquisition --> Activation: [TBD]% conversion Activation --> Retention: [TBD]% conversion Retention --> Revenue: [TBD]% conversion Revenue --> Referral: [TBD]% conversion

### Biggest Drop-Off

**Stage**: [Where the largest conversion drop occurs]
**Current Conversion**: [TBD]%
**Impact**: [Why this matters -- downstream effects of this drop-off]

## One Metric That Matters (OMTM)

**OMTM**: [The single metric to focus on right now]
**Stage**: [Which AARRR stage it belongs to]
**Current Value**: [TBD]
**Target Value**: [TBD]
**Timeframe**: [By when]

**Why This Metric**:
[2-3 sentences explaining why this is the right metric to focus on given the product's current stage and funnel analysis]

**OMTM Validation**:
| Criterion | Pass? | Evidence |
|-----------|-------|----------|
| Biggest bottleneck or highest leverage | [Yes/No] | [Why] |
| Actionable by the team | [Yes/No] | [Who can influence it] |
| Stage-appropriate for product maturity | [Yes/No] | [Why] |
| Moving it will improve downstream stages | [Yes/No] | [How] |

## OMTM Evolution Plan

| Product Stage | Expected OMTM | Rationale |
|---------------|---------------|-----------|
| Pre-PMF | [Activation metric] | Validate core value delivery |
| Early Growth | [Retention metric] | Confirm users stay |
| Scaling | [Acquisition or Revenue] | Grow efficiently |
| Mature | [Revenue or Referral] | Optimize unit economics |

## Improvement Hypotheses

| # | Hypothesis | Stage | Expected Impact | Validation Method |
|---|-----------|-------|-----------------|-------------------|
| 1 | [If we do X, then Y will improve by Z] | [Stage] | [Impact on OMTM] | [How to test] |
| 2 | [Hypothesis] | [Stage] | [Impact] | [Test] |
| 3 | [Hypothesis] | [Stage] | [Impact] | [Test] |

Instructions

1. Ask clarifying questions about the product's current funnel, available data, and product stage
2. Check prior context: Run

   /context-recall [product]

   to find related growth models, strategic bets, and positioning
3. Check feedback: Run

   /feedback-recall [growth/retention/activation/churn]

   for customer signals
4. Reference any analytics dashboards, usage data, or strategy documents provided via @file syntax
5. Define the specific events that mark each stage transition -- reject generic definitions
6. Use [TBD] for any metric values not provided by the user; never fabricate funnel numbers
7. Identify the biggest drop-off and recommend the OMTM with clear rationale
8. Include the RARRA variant discussion if the product is past product-market fit
9. Save in metrics/ or product/ folder
10. Offer to create presentation version using /present

Context Integration

After generating the pirate metrics analysis:

1. Offer to save: Ask "Should I save this to the context registry? (

   /context-save

   )"
2. If yes, extract and save:
   • AARRR funnel map and OMTM to context
   • Link to related growth model, NSM, and strategic bets
   • Improvement hypotheses to

     context/assumptions/registry.md

3. Suggest using OMTM as input to

   /north-star-metric

   and

   /experiment-design